Moon Desk: The Saudi focus is in securing non-conventional guarantees (‘nuclear umbrella’) under the concept of nuclear-sharing, for which a tacit understanding ‘reportedly’ existed as far back as 2010. The Kingdom just formalised it. Riyadh sought similar protection from the US, which ostensibly made it conditional to the Kingdom joining the Abraham Accords to recognise Israel. However, Tel Aviv’s resistance to the Two-State solution and boundaries thereof and prosecution of genocide/atrocities in Gaza literally buried any hopes of the expected Saudi-Israeli rapprochement. Therefore, the Saudi push for mutual defence arrangements with Muslim Pakistan, as an available alternative. Riyadh has a longstanding, deep-rooted and multi-domain defence cooperation, collaboration and production ties with Pakistan. On September 22, Ali Shihabi, an analyst closer to the Saudi royal court, was quizzed if the deal meant Pakistan offering nukes to defend Saudi Arabia.
He replied to AFP: “Yes, it does,” explaining “Nuclear is integral to this deal and Pakistan remembers that the kingdom effectively financed their nuclear programme and supported them when they were sanctioned.” Shihabi, a Princeton University and Harvard Business School alumni, also reiterated that he hoped “India will understand the security needs of Saudi Arabia.” So, there are no two opinions on the nature of security umbrella. Nuclear-sharing or nuclear basing is an established arrangement among NATO countries.
some in the Pakistani old school over-emphasise ambiguity in nuclear strategy etc, therefore, recommending maintaining ambiguity in guarantees and deployment of nuclear safeguards to the Kingdom. However, this cabal misreads current regional and global security environment, especially the unambiguous Pak-Saudi threat perception. Israel’s ultra-right coalition under Netanyahu makes unambiguous and threatening statements about their divine right to strike any country anywhere that does not fall in line. Gone are the days of maintaining ambiguity for plausibility and deniability. It is time to draw red lines, make these known and defend them tooth and nail to instil caution on rogue states like Israel, and fortify deterrence against budding rogue states like Modi’s India, shredding to pieces notions like the ‘new normal’.
Doubters and naysayers influenced by the Indian information maneuver question Pakistan’s resolve to use nukes, if push comes to shove. The fact that Pakistan under its present military leadership did not blink against a much larger, overconfident and arrogant India, in May this year, is enough to demonstrate Islamabad’s resolve, that should never be put to test by Indian or Israeli miscalculations. It is backed by a credible, fail-safe, multiplatform triad involving air, land and sea-based capability available to both nations, designed specifically for defensive purposes. The civil-military leadership resolves to not live in a world, where there is no Pakistan or its co-joined twin, Saudi Arabia.
