June 5, 2023
Monn Desk: Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally Friday, Aug. 5, 2022, in Waukesha, Wis. The FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate marked a dramatic and unprecedented escalation of the law enforcement scrutiny of the former president, but the Florida operation is just one part of one investigation related to Trump and his time in office. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)

Donald Trump was hoping to surf a Republican “red wave” to a fresh White House bid, but with only limited gains in Tuesday’s midterm elections — and an outstanding result for his chief intraparty rival — the former US president seems to be left out to sea.

Though Republicans look likely to wrest control from the Democratic Party in at least one chamber of Congress, projections show they will not gain the large number of seats typical when the sitting president’s approval ratings are so low, and inflation so high.

In the House, early results suggested Republicans were on track for a majority — but only by a handful of seats — while control of the Senate remains on a knife-edge and may hinge on a runoff election in the southern state of Georgia in early December.

Trump, who has teased the potential launch of a presidential campaign on November 15, remained in the spotlight throughout the campaign — putting his thumb on key Republican primaries and holding rallies nationwide, during which he repeated his baseless claims of fraud in the 2020 race.

But with several of his hand-picked candidates underperforming — some even losing Republican-held seats to Democrats — analysts and some in his party are blaming him for the party’s underwhelming election night.

Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has barely hidden his intent to run for president in 2024, resoundingly won reelection, cementing the rising Republican star’s position as a formidable Trump opponent.

The day after the polls newspapers hailed DeSantis’ rise, while Republican voters in Scottsdale, Arizona compared him favorably to Trump.

“Trump, he’s just about his ego,” small business owner Lisa Christopher, 60, told AFP. “DeSantis knows when to push and when to back off and Trump doesn’t.”

Retired crane worker Bob Nolan said Trump had “too much baggage.”

“He was who we needed. But I think … DeSantis is more down to earth and ready to run.”

University of Chicago’s Jon Rogowski told AFP that it should have been easy for Republicans to take back the House and the Senate by “a wide margin,” pointing to the negative economic environment and Biden’s low approval ratings.

“Many of the candidates he (Trump) endorsed underperformed and cost their party a chance at picking up seats that should have been winnable,” said the political scientist.

“Other Republican candidates with whom he’d feuded publicly won their seats easily.”

– Candidate ‘quality’ –

The midterm results show that “you can be a conservative, you can be principled, you can oppose Trump — and win,” Peter Loge, a media professor at George Washington University, tells AFP.

Geoff Duncan, Georgia’s lieutenant governor and longtime critic of the former president, told CNN Wednesday morning: “I think Donald Trump’s moving from a movement to a distraction for the Republican Party.”

Before the election on Tuesday, lead Senate Republican Mitch McConnell had voiced concern over the “quality” of some Trump-backed candidates.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats were able to flip a highly-prized US Senate seat with constant attacks on the Republican candidate, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who had never held public office before and lived mostly in New Jersey.

The Republican candidate for Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race, the right-wing and anti-abortion Doug Mastriano, who was present at the January 6th assault on the US Capitol, also lost.

Some notable exceptions, however: the Trump-backed candidate for the US Senate seat from Ohio won, as did more than 100 Republican candidates who challenged the 2020 presidential election results, according to US media projections.

– ‘Leave the stage’ –

Trump on Wednesday morning was “livid” and “screaming at everyone,” according to CNN reporter Jim Acosta, citing an adviser to the former president.

While he admitted that the election results were “somewhat disappointing,” Trump on Wednesday posted to his Truth Social page that “from my personal standpoint it was a very big victory,” pointing to the likely Republican win in the House.

Rogowski says he expects Trump “will be eager to move past 2022 and will declare his candidacy for 2024 sooner than later.”

Some political commentators have speculated Trump might delay his November 15 announcement, but he has not yet revealed any change in plans.

Another of his possible 2024 rivals — his former vice president Mike Pence — will publish his memoirs that same day.

A preview of those memoirs appeared in the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, with Pence recounting the pressure Trump laid on him to overturn the 2020 election results.

Such an early campaign launch by Trump, just under two years from the actual election, would serve to “consolidate his support early and crowd out other potential candidates,” says Rogowski.

“But if he felt he were in a strong position, he would not need to declare so early.”

While some may be hoping Trump steps aside and lets candidates such as DeSantis pick up the Republican banner, Loge says that is highly unlikely.

“The problem of becoming the next Trump is that the current Trump has to leave the stage,” he says.

“Donald Trump isn’t very good at leaving the stage.”

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